Let's face it: McCain has been doing better in the polls lately. The Gallup tracker shows McCain even with Obama today, while the Pollster composite shows him gaining (though still far behind). As Sean points out over at Nate Silver's place, this is mostly due to McCain's shoring up his conservative base.
Meanwhile, McCain's lurch toward negative campaigning and embrace of GOP talking points doesn't (yet) seem to have hurt him all that much with independents and moderates. Yes, it's early: polls this far out don't mean much; most people are watching Michael Phelps, not a bunch of guys arguing in suits; the conventions and debates will change the landscape; the really negative ads haven't really started yet. Still, it's worth considering how to stem McCain's momentum such as it is, and how best to reverse the trend.
Fortunately, the presidential and generic cross-tabs from Rasmussen help us do just that. While most intelligent people in the progressive blogosphere are still bullish on Obama's chances in November, the picture Rasmussen paints should be of concern even to the most sanguine and confident of progressive prognosticators. The problem is that on most issues, Obama is underperforming the generic ballot.
Now, when individual candidates underperform the generic ballot overall, analysts rightly state that we elect candidates, not generic ballots: the point being that character and personal issues often gum up the works. Dodging the issues while focusing on "character" and "values" has, after all, been the saving strategy of Republicans for decades.
But that's not the problem. Obama is underperforming on the issues.
Consider these numbers:
| ISSUE | McCain | Obama | GOP | Dems |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq | 51% | 39% | 40% | 49% |
| Economy | 45% | 44% | 39% | 51% |
Yes, you read that right: McCain has big leads over Obama on both Iraq and the economy, despite the fact that Democrats in general blow away Republicans in general on both these issues. This isn't a "character" problem: it's an "issues" problem.
Let's look at a few others:
| ISSUE | McCain | Obama | GOP | Dems |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Security | 51% | 40% | 44% | 48% |
| Social Security | 44% | 38% | 37% | 45% |
| Ethics | 39% | 46% | 28% | 44% |
| Healthcare | 41% | 46% | 37% | 52% |
| Abortion | 40% | 34% | 36% | 43% |
| Immigration | 45% | 36% | 35% | 45% |
And the list goes on and on. At first glance, these numbers are really disheartening. But they are actually excellent news for Obama partisans like myself--provided that we use this information to act quickly over the next few months.
Because what this means is that many voters are not rejecting Obama based upon character, but rather on issues--and we're still winning by small margins in the national vote, and by wider margins in the electoral college. Note that Obama actually leads McCain on "ethics".
The challenge, then, is blindingly simple: Make Obama the Democrat in the race, and make John McCain the Republican. It seems obvious, but that's all there really is to it.
John McCain is not being seen as the Republican in this race. Many voters seem to still be buying into his image as a "moderate" and a "maverick." Meanwhile, Obama's tacks toward the center combined with lingering resentments and suspicions about his position on issues like abortion among Clinton voters are raising questions among some Democrats about his progressive credentials.
We won't win this race by assaulting McCain's character. The $520 loafers, the 10 houses, the flip-flopping, the mental incapacity, etc. are good things to remind people of. But when all is said and done, victory and defeat in November will depend upon reminding people that McCain really is a Republican running for Bush's 3rd term.
For his part, Obama won't win this race by tacking to the center, either. All Obama needs to do is come out convincingly as the Democrat. Recent moves on FISA and oil drilling come to mind here. They aren't a huge deal, but too many more such moves will hurt much more than they help. All Obama needs to do is stay the course as the Democrat in the race, and paint McCain as the Republican.
And yes, it really is that simple.
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