MyDD :: Evan Bayh For VP? Musings on Intrade

Evan Bayh For VP? Musings on Intrade

by Saintcog, Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 11:52:54 PM EST

This diary is pure speculation based on data that I just caught on Intrade. This is not me advocating Senator Bayh for VP, although I think he would be a pretty decent choice. He may even help swing Indiana by 2 or 3 points, which could produce an Obama victory. But again, this is more an idea that I wanted to shoot out there and see how everyone responds.

According to Intrade, Evan Bayh's value shot up by 15 points in the past week. Trading at 25, he is now far and away the most popular choice among every prospective candidate that Intrade lists. Next is Kaine at 15, Biden at 14, then Sebelius at 13. No one else out of the 50 or so choices even breaks 10.

Granted, this by itself does not mean anything, but it did get me thinking. How many people on Obama's team have an idea of which way he is leaning? 5? 10? 20? If anyone knew whom Obama will pick well in advance of his decision, do you think any of them would try to use that to their financial advantage by trading in Dem VP futures according to this insider knowledge? This could be done fairly easily through a surrogate so the money wouldn't be readily traced back to the actual source.

So, has there been anything in the news lately that would have caused Bayh's stock to rise so sharply in such a short span of time? I wouldn't know because I've been registering voters this weekend and have been on a news blackout. If there hasn't been any news that would have caused this, then what's going on here? Why is everyone suddenly literally putting their money on Bayh?

Tags: Evan Bayh, Vice President, Barack Obama (all tags)

Permalink :: 16 Comments :: Post a Comment

Bayh has been kissing up to (none / 0)

Obama the past two weeks; he said something in an interview about how much they have in common (e.g. basketball players and fans, great spouses, same age, went to Iraq together in 2006). I hope it's not Bayh because he has three strikes against him (AUMF, bankruptcy bill, FISA). I suppose under this reasoning, Biden has two strikes and Clinton has one strike. Obama has one strike.

by Blazers Edge on Sun Jul 27, 2008 at 11:58:38 PM EST

Re: Bayh has been kissing up to (none / 0)

I think it would be more telling if Obama were responding in kind. Has he been? Otherwise Bayh is just another party sycophant posturing for the veep slot - not that there's anything wrong with that. It just really is embarrassing to watch sometimes.

by Saintcog on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:01:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, Bayh's kissing up (2.00 / 1)

is pretty revolting; it's one thing for Biden and Clinton to hit Obama hard during a primary because after all, they were opponents and politics isn't Sunday school. But Bayh pretty much came close to saying Obama had no testicles, or at least fewer testicles than Hillary.

I think Obama said some nice things about Bayh when he appeared with him for a national security forum with Sam Nunn but other than that, I don't recall any reciprocation. Bayh has been more active on the television circuit. Biden has disappeared from the tv circuit these past three weeks and Clinton has yet to emerge for her first post-primary tv interview.

by Blazers Edge on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:08:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

ROTFL. (none / 0)

But Bayh pretty much came close to saying Obama had no testicles, or at least fewer testicles than Hillary.

BE - as i have said before - you crack me up.

"Democracy! Bah! When I hear that I reach for my feather Boa!" Allen Ginsberg

by canadian gal on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:13:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope not (none / 0)

I think he'd be a disaster. We need someone like Biden who can go toe to toe with Romney with knowledge and humor. I don't even know what Bayh sounds like. That's bad for a politician.

by highgrade on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 12:06:18 AM EST

How many people on Obama's team have an idea (none / 0)

Put your money on Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg.

by Beren on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:01:25 AM EST

Ah, pull a Cheney you mean? (none / 0)

The picker picks herself!

by conspiracy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:34:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Evan Bayh For VP? Musings on Intrade (none / 0)

He'd be a good VP choice. There are two trains of thought when it comes to VP, either you balance the ticket or you complement your strengths. Bayh COULD (that's a big could) do both. He's moderate on a lot of issues and helps with the Clinton wing, yet he's young enough, and isn't so established in Washington, that he can still help Obama push his change mantra.

John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.

by jkfp2004 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 01:11:33 AM EST

There is a saying (none / 0)

VP can only hurt you, not help. That is the definition of Bayh. I have liked him for years and think he is a shoe in, then again I though Webb was a shoe in, what the hell do I know?

"Is there no keeping with class in whom we mingle with anymore?"

by Brandon on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 03:26:09 AM EST

Re: Evan Bayh For VP? Musings on Intrade (none / 0)

The fact is that if I had to make the decision tomorrow, I would pick Bayh:

1) Indiana popularity.

You can pick off some of the Clinton constituency without having to deal with President Clinton.
Can stay on message
Doesn't push independents out the door.

The number from a couple weeks ago--please forgive my memory and set me straight on this poll number (I believe 22% said that Sen. Clinton as VP would make them more likely 23% said they would be less likely and more than 40% said that it would have no effect either way).

Today I would take Sen. Bayh over Sen. Clinton. However, if polling eventually shows a need for Sen. Clinton she would get the nod. I've always advocated a 2 track process. I've always had Sen. Clinton as the "in case of emergency break glass" candidate.

I think regardless of how one views his ideological credentials, Bayh has to be at the top of the list for factional considerations.

Visiting the hopium dens proudly since 2007.

by AZphilosopher on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 04:58:47 AM EST

Who is Evan Bayh? (none / 0)

I read political blogs a fair bit -- a few every day. And I comment now and then. So, I see Evan Bayh's name at times. Most recently as a possible VP for Obama.

Still, I have no idea who he is. I remember that he's a senator from somewhere. I'm reminded after I read the comments that it's Indiana. OK... Note to self: Try to remember that Bayh is from Indiana...

But I remember nothing else about him. I certainly am not a political know-it-all; far from it. But neither am I a political know-nothing. And still for the life of me I can't remember anything about Evan Bayh.

I can't even remember how to pronounce his name and I haven't the slightest idea what he even looks like. The best I can pull from my memory is nondescript white guy -- but for some reason the only image that comes to mind when I think of him is John Edwards. However, I do know that he's not John Edwards.

Most of the other possible VP picks, I know what they look like and I know how to pronounce their names. And I know where they are from. I know a thing or two about them, even. This guy, nothing. Oh, yeah, Indiana. I like Indiana, so my point isn't that Indiana is forgettable. It's that Evan Bayh is.

Is it just me? Or do other people have this same memory lapse?

by carrieboberry on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 06:35:18 AM EST

Question (none / 0)

Would Obama look like a hypocrite if he chose a VP (Bayh, Biden, Dodd) who happily voted for the Iraq War, after spending the past year implicitly arguing that Hillary's Iraq War vote disqualified her from becoming the Democratic presidential nominee?

There are plenty of solid Veep candidates who didn't vote for the war--like Kaine, Sebelius, or Clark--so why take on this baggage if it's not necessary?

by Will Graham on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 07:45:04 AM EST

Future Debate Question if Bayh is the Veep (none / 0)

Q: Senator Obama, during the Democratic primary you said that the Iraq war "should not have been authorized" on numerous occasions. As you know, your Vice-President, Sen. Evan Bayh wholeheartedly supported the war and voted for the Iraq War Resolution. Given this, do you believe Sen. Bayh's foreign policy judgment is sound?

Then sit back and watch Obama attempt to thread the needle. Didn't work for Hillary; won't work for Obama either...

by Will Graham on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:18:18 AM EST

Re: Evan Bayh For VP? Musings on Intrade (2.00 / 1)

You noticed that too? Yesterday it briefly topped 30% before settling down to 25 again.

You know what i think it is? Look at the intrade numbers for Mitt Romney: he's at 40% - by far the most likely among McCain's choices. If McCain picks Romney, Obama may go after evangelicals even harder than he is now, and Evan Bayh is perfect for that.

If you hold a cat by the tail you learn things you cannot learn any other way.

by Jess81 on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 08:30:18 AM EST

Re: Evan Bayh For VP? Musings on Intrade (none / 0)

Great analysis. I mean, who knows if that's right or not, but it's definitely a plausible explanation.

by Saintcog on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 09:34:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I now think it will be Kaine or Sebelius or... (none / 0)

...a complete darkhorse nobody has mentioned. From what he said on MTP I don't think it will be another senator.

by conspiracy on Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 10:36:48 AM EST

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