Will Barack Drop Out?

by anna shane, Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:53:57 PM EST

I admit I've been for Hillary and I've been critical of Barack for the way he's campaigned against her, in order to try to compare himself favorably. I've never thought this was the unity way to run in a primary, but I always have and still do consider him to be a decent man.  Most presidents ran rather unpleasant and depressing campaigns against their opponents, so he can't be singled out, except to say it's retro.

That said, I think Barack will drop out within the next week or two. He knows the basis of his campaign has been compromised and that he hasn't the time or even the energy to re-introduce himself. I think that whenever he'd realized he'd lost, he'd do the stand up thing, congratulate the winner and campaign for her, as she would have for him had he closed the deal.   His main problem is that he wasn't ready for this fight. He didn't have the experience to know that he couldn't control the media and that they would one day turn on him, and that he couldn't control any of his past associates. He could say his version of events and his points of view, but on questions of 'history' even more than on questions of 'values,' there are always many plausible versions.  

I'd congratulate him for taking his campaign far far farther than his experience warranted, and for thus being an historic candidate, not merely for his ethnicity, but mainly for his courage to run on such a slim resume and do great.  He's a terrific motivational speaker and I think a genuinely nice man.

I hope there will be enough 'distance' in time for him to be our vice presidential candidate. I'd love to see him living in Dick Cheney's house. I wish him and Michele the best and I'll be wanting to see his name on the ticket.  

Clinton-Obama '08




Tags: Barack Obama, Pastor Wright, John McCain (all tags)

Display:
Permalink :: 148 Comments :: Post a Comment


Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

Oh, Poo! What nonsense. He will win NC and likely IN also. then what will you say? Then most states left will go for him big time. HRC has KY and WV. That's it.


by Becky G on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:56:56 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.87 / 8)

because he's a decent man, and he'll take responsibility for the state of his campaign. he wont' debate her, but he gets pushed around by Fox and his pastor betrays him?  He once said that he wasn't ready and then Kerry and Axlerod helped him change his mind, but he was right and they were wrong.  I"m just saying I believe the guy is that decent. Once he realizes he can't win, sometime in the next week or two, he'll drop out and save his congressional supporters the pain of leaving him. He knows Hillary is a great candidate, he isn't stupid.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:01:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

Are you saying, then, that Hillary is not a decent person, since she won't drop out?


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

if hillary were as underqualified as obama is, she never would have run in the first place.


by campskunk on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

So...would you call his candidacy affirmative action?


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

affirmative action is on the part of the hiring body, not the applicant. his candidacy is at his initiative, not ours. now go to your room and don't come out until you clean up your analogies.


by campskunk on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:01:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

why would you think that?  Hillary has said all along that if he wins she'll do whatever she can to help him get elected. He in contrast has said that his voters would not be there for him and he's given tepid support.  But I think he's better than that. this is a defense of him.  I guess that earns me tr's?  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

I beg to differ on the state of his campaign. You are clearly in a different world from the world I'm seeing.


by Becky G on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:20:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The state of HIS campaign? (2.00 / 2)

Have you looked at Clinton's campaign lately?
She started this whole thing a year ago with what should have been an insurmountable lead. She had most of the Democratic Party structure behind her, she had boatloads of money, and she was married to the last Democratic president.
Now look where she is.
If anybody's run a lousy campaign, it's been Clinton. I have to say, I've been dumbfounded by how incompetently she's run it. I was never much of a fan, but I thought the one thing she'd do well was run a tight ship.
ооо
by Mumphrey on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The state of HIS campaign? (2.00 / 1)

Exactly.

Given the absolute disaster that Clinton's primary campaign has been, why should we think her general election campaign would be any better?

With the way she's been running her campaign, she would lose to McCain in a landslide.


by Angry White Democrat on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:33:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The State of His Campaign? (none / 0)

Let's face it:  Obama has had a rough couple of days.  That's not the end of a campaign.  He has about $40M more cash on hand than Clinton.  He has an all-but-insurmountable lead in pledged delegates.  He's received more superdelegate endorsements during this "rough patch" than has Clinton.  And he's about to win the primary in North Carolina, which is one of the most populous states in the country.  

If we're looking at the relative states of the two campaigns, it's Clinton's that has been roundly criticized for both its strategic and tactical vision.  It's Clinton whose senior advisor had to step back from his leadership role because of a perceived conflict of interest.  It's Clinton whose spouse has received more critical inquiry.  It's Clinton who was caught trying to inflate her national security credentials.  It's Clinton whom the voters of Pennsylvania and the nation believe to be less trustworthy and more negative.

And while neither candidate will have enough delegates to win the nomination without the support of some of the remaining superdelegates, it's Clinton who will need a supermajority of their support.  She won PA by 9 points, and the practical upshot--aside from living to fight another day--was a steeper road to the nomination.  Once the voters of IN and NC have spoken, she'll need an even higher supermajority of unattached delegates.

If Obama were to founder and fade now, I wouldn't want him as our nominee.  But he won't.  He's taking the best (and worst) that the Clinton campaign can dish out and beating her.


by deminva on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:01:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 4)

There's no basis for declaring Obama will win Indiana right now.  The most objective minds can say it's a toss-up, slight lean towards Hillary.  (See RCP Indiana Average).  

There's also no basis for believing Obama will definitely win Oregon.  No one has any idea what's going on in Oregon right now (all the polls there are stale), except that in the nearby Washington primary, Obama edged out Clinton by 5% and that was at the absolutele height of his popularity.  

Washington is a little bit more left leaning, little more diverse, more affluent, more educated, more urban, and younger than Oregon so good luck to Obama there.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:07:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

Erm, Obama crushed Clinton in the Washington caucuses by more than 2-1. The Washington primary didn't count for anything.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:09:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Except for (2.00 / 3)

counting the will of the people in an actual, democratic process- that's all though, no biggie.
by linc on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:13:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It was a beauty contest (2.00 / 1)

The very fact that Obama beat Clinton in a meaningless beauty pagent, when she did so well in Florida and even beat "Uncommitted" by like 15% in Michigan suggests that the real count was much higher.

Most folks likely went to the caucus and ignored the primary.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:15:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It was a beauty contest (2.00 / 4)

Actually, voter turnout for the WA primary was double that of the caucus. Nice try, though.


Hillary supporter for Barack Obama in 2008
by zcflint05 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Were there any downticket items of importance? (none / 0)

I admit that I'm not familiar...

He won either way, and a caucus result in Washington is probably a good indicator of a caucus result in Oregon.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:29:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Were there any downticket items of importance? (2.00 / 1)

Excellent point!

And a primary in Washington is a better indicator of a primary in Oregon.

And ladies and gentlemen, I present to you...

The Oregon primary!

Note that it features mail-in ballots, a voting procedure Obama opposed in Michigan because it is believed to negatively affect turnout for groups that favor him most.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ah, didn't realize (none / 0)

I thought it was a caucus.

Anyway, mail-ins only hurt Obama at the start of the primary when people didn't know who he was.  Clinton got a lot of name recognition votes off of that.  Now it's not so big an issue.

Besides, I was under the impression that it was the Florida mail-ins that he opposed, because they were illegal in Florida?


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:05:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ah, didn't realize (none / 0)

No, mail-in factor was part of the reason Obama opposed it in Michigan's re-vote.  Conventional wisdom is that it has an effect of suppresing turnout among lower income voters.  

The effect would be more pronounced in Michigan where Obama's base is Detroit rather than Oregon, which is more white liberal.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Fri May 02, 2008 at 04:51:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except for (2.00 / 1)

if washington primary would have counted, you can bet your ass the obama campaign would have devoted resources to it. Since it didn't, they spent their resources on the caucus, which they dominated


by aaaa05 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:17:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except for (2.00 / 2)

Not true, in Texas both counted and Hillary won the popular vote 51-47 and lost the caucus 55-45... what does that tell us?  To me it tells us that the caucus system is not democratic.  And having participated in both personally, it was easy to see why - look at some of my previous posts.  The caucuses were a mad-house, and many people were unable to attend since it was limited to a period starting at 7pm on a weeknight and some did not finish until the wee hours of the morning.  Total chaos.


by mikes101 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:24:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except for (none / 0)

Ah were those the rules???


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:24:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's right, the rules (2.00 / 1)

are more important than democracy. Thank god we have SDs to sort this whole thing out.
by linc on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:26:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's right, the rules (2.00 / 1)

Yeah, well, she went into this knowing what the rules were. After all, nobody was whining when her husband was winning caucuses. If she couldn't run a competent campaing, that's her fault, not Obama's.
And if she thought the nefarious, evil caucuses were so bad, why didn't she work in the years leading up to her run to try to get some of those states to switch to primaries? It's not like she, a sitting U.S. senator, her husband, the former president, didn't have any clout, right?
But she went into this thinking it was sewn up before it started--and indeed, a year ago it did look that way--and didn't bother to plan for anything going wrong along the way.
When Obama shot up she was caught flatfooted.
Again, that's her fault, not Obama's, not Iowa's, not anybody else's.
And if this is how she ran her campaign into the ground, what makes you think she'd win in November?
ооо
by Mumphrey on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:52:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I didn't say (none / 0)

anything about what Clinton thought. Do you think I speak for her because I support her candidacy?
by linc on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:39:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's right, the rules (2.00 / 1)

What the hell do you think Democracy is, if not rules. The constituion is a document of rules.


"In the primary you should vote with your heart, but in the general, you should vote with your head" Bill Clinton
by venician on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:56:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Democracy? (none / 0)

So I guess the will of the people through one person one vote is a peripheral consideration to DEMOCRACY, it's actually all about rules....um ok.

Every sovereign nation has a Constitution with laws and rules be they a Communist, Democratic or Totalitarian system but I guess since they have constitutions they're exercising democracy.


by wasanyonehurt on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The constitution (none / 0)

is not democracy- it is, well... a constitution. Democracy is a principle- usually, it is rules that interfere with Democracy. The US Constitution, for instance, is interpreted to allow for the disenfranchisement of released felons, resident aliens, an arbitrarily determined group of persons not considered adults, for starters.
The 'rules' of the DNC and this primary process, they are no different.
by linc on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:38:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

And Oregon is a primary, right?  So we might expect if anything something more like a 5% Obama edge as opposed to 20% which is given to him by the biased caucus process.


by mikes101 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:15:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Why don't you people give up the "biased caucus" whining? It's really pathetic.
Hillary Clinton is a sitting senator and she's married to a former president who went through this himself in 1992. She knew how these things work, and if she loses a caucus it's not because Obama cheated or because they're unfair, it's because she's run a lousy campaign in which she never planned on anything going wrong.
And if it happened that she really didn't know how they worked, well, what does that say about her competence?
ооо
by Mumphrey on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:55:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

You are missing the point (hope not deliberately). Oregon has a primary so the best way to compare it to Washington is the WA primary.


by Sandeep on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:27:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

True, but you cannot use the Washington primary as a gauge for anything, since it was a beauty contest. And this isn't a Texas-type situation, or even a Michigan or Florida situation. There isn't a person in Washington who thought the primary counted for anything, it was simply held to satisfy obscure logistics laws in WA (specifically, because the republican primary did count, slightly, and WA cannot hold a contest for one party without holding one for the other.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

O.K. not Wash (none / 0)

OK if not Washington then how about comparing it to California's primary. One's on the North so how about the one to the South.


by del on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:14:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

" but you cannot use the Washington primary as a gauge for anything, since it was a beauty contest. "

The primary from Washington is the best poll we have from that area.  It's a screen where 100% of participants are "likely voters" (they actually voted) and it has a sample size of over 500,000.  

It's a pretty strong testament to his regional appeal I'd say.  Much better than a PPP poll out of Washingon saying Obama + 5.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Oregon has a primary, not a caucus.  Please let me know why you think the results from Oregon's primary will look like the results from Washington's caucus, rather than the results from its primary.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:32:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

He is not going to win Indiana


by reggie44pride on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:09:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

He'll almost certainly win in NC but not in Indiana. If he sustains a big defeat there it will compound his difficulties. This diary is for the birds because speaking as a Hillary supporter I still think he's the likely nominee. But he's going to lose in the fall. This is so blindingly obvious it hardly needs saying but this nation does have a capacity for self delusion that is fairly unique in the west. That means we lose the white house for four years. That said we will gain in house and senate and Clinton will be smelling of roses. And that's how it is tonight my friends.    


by ottovbvs on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

Our nominee, whomever it may be, will not lose in the fall.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:19:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hate to have to disagree with you (none / 0)

But if BHO is the nominee we will lose in the fall.  Doesn't mean I won't work hard to elect him, but he's unelectable at this point.  He's a better man and a better candidate than McCain, but he still won't win the election.  We're screwed.  Get ready for the inevitable.


Unity Ticket: The best damn way to kick John McCain's Ass in November!
by aurelius on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:16:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hate to have to disagree with you (2.00 / 1)

I don't think it's a good idea to foretell doom like that, though. Hillary or Obama, we have a big problem either way. Obama's going to have trouble with working class whites, and Hillary's going to have trouble getting the African American vote. If Obama is ahead in pledged delegates and the popular vote, how well do you think it will go over in the AA community if Hillary gets the nomination?

Still, the economy's in bad shape, and everyone's sick of the war. I think we'll win. In any case, we'd better make do with the candidates we have, despite their considerable shortcomings, and try to keep a positive outlook.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:49:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm going to work hard (none / 0)

for whomever gets the nom.  I've been through too many GE's to have a lot of optimism going this time around (if BHO is the nominee).  I'm not going to count him out yet; but I have serious doubts.  Time will tell.


Unity Ticket: The best damn way to kick John McCain's Ass in November!
by aurelius on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 12:55:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's pretty good (2.00 / 6)

I needed a laugh after today.

The answer is, "No, Obama won't drop out."

Don't be silly.  He's still winning.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:58:13 PM EST

Re: That's pretty good (2.00 / 2)

Anna, this is a terrific diary, but you should really add a snark tag or else people might think you're actually serious.


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:15:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (none / 0)

I guess I have a higher opinion of him than his supporters. He's announced he's going to stop negative attacks and he's keeping his impossible position on the gas tax. he's preparing to step out on a high note.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:18:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (2.00 / 1)

"he's preparing to step out on a high note."

Is this a joke?


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:23:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (none / 0)

he doesn't think so. he's always been better than his campaign, but his better self wasn't winning enough votes, so he positioned himself as against Hillary.  He was good at it, but I don't think it felt right to him. So, yeah, the first thing he'll do is step on the high road and say only what he really thinks. He's doing that on the gas tax, it's just not popular with voters, ideas aren't enough, she acts.  A little help now may be what some families need to keep from sinking.  And it may wake up the oil industry to see that their profits aren't sustainable if they sink our economy. I like Obama better the more he runs into trouble because he shows his truer self.  He has some learning curve to work on and he has to decide if he wants to be a politician, if he wants to do the work it takes to form coalitions and to get the right legislation passed.  I think he's finding he doesn't like politics.  He would have found out sooner if he'd had more experience.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:14:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (none / 0)

But........getting rid of the gas tax DOESN'T cut gas prices. They just float right back up to where they were. If you studied economics, you might understand that.


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (none / 0)

sure, I understand it, and I'm not too poor to buy gas.  If it's between food and gas, and the price of milk it up too, and the only thing government can do is at least stop taxing the gas you need to get to work or to the store, and you don't do that, because it's not a real solution, just a help for struggling people, then that qualifies as an idea and not a short term imperfect solution but the best that can be done.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:14:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (none / 0)

Ummm...no...once again, you don't understand. In a tight supply market, the price will simply float back up to it's original level. No one will receive any savings.


by Democratic Unity on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:18:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's pretty good (none / 0)

you miss the point, there are times to stick with pure theory and there are times to take what you can get and position for down the road.  With Hillary's plan she'll trade tax breaks, take tax breaks from oil and give tax breaks to drivers. It'll set up an expectation, save us some bucks for a change, and lead to bigger tax trades.  If you wait for perfection you can end up with nothing.  What''s funny is that Obama is the opposite on health insurance, he's so sure we can't get the big banana he won't even ask for it. And he was the opposite on driver's licenses for undocumented workers. there he wants a little thing that won't help. And look what he did on capital gains, first it was a fairness issue, even though it would cost revenue he'd raise that tax, but then, when he numbers among indies and left-leaning libertarians tanks, he won't raise them after all.  There is only one candidate who says what she means and means what she says. that's because she figures these things out before she says anything. any wonder why Barack fears debating her?  


by anna shane on Thu May 01, 2008 at 08:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 5)

If Clinton was leading by 135 delegates, that just might make sense!


by emptythreatsfarm on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:59:17 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

You forgot PR- 55 Delegates are at stake. more than WV,MT,SD- Same amount as KY and OR.


by nkpolitics on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:59:42 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 6)

Wow - concern-trolling at it's finest.  You people have shame whatsoever.  Anyone thinking he will drop out and become Hillary's VP is a delusional head-case.  Not gonna happen.  Here are a few things that will happen:

1) he will win NC, be it by 1% or 10%

  1. he will continue to pick up supers at a 3:1 clip over Hillary
  2. he will be the nominee
  3. you guys will still hate him

this is, at best a bush league diary.


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 04:59:49 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Well to be fair, since Penn., he's managed a 1:1 ratio.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:02:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

No, it's 7 to 3 for Obama since Pennsylvania:


This makes it 7-3 superdelegate pickups for Obama since the Pennsylvania primary.
...
OBAMA (7): Brad Henry (OK GOV), Audra Ostergard (NE DNC), David Wu (OR Rep), Charlene Fernandez (AZ DNC), Jeff Bingaman (NM SEN), Ben Chandler (KY Rep), Richard Machacek (IA DNC).

CLINTON (3): John Tanner (TN Rep), Kathy Sullivan (NH add on), Mike Easley (NC GOV).


by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:18:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

After all of the remaining contest ends. Obama will end up with 1772.5 Pledge Delegates. Hillary will end up with 1619.5 Pledge Delegates. Factor in the Commited Super Delegates.

Obama has 2012.5 Delegates.
Clinton has 1871.5 Delegates.


by nkpolitics on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:56:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Gee, I don't know if he can get those final 12.5 delegates!!!


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:24:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Estimated delegate totals (none / 0)

Here is my estimate.

Pledged
Obama 1659
Clinton 1557

factoring in committed Supers
Obama 1903
Clinton 1823

I also fully expect Mi and Fl to count in some way (Dean is saying that also) Plus apparently the rules committee may not have had the authority to take away the supers from Mi & Fl. And of those, Clinton has many more than Obama.


by del on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:30:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

+ Ike Skelton.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:00:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

today is a 2:1 day - Richard Machacek, an Iowa superdelegate and Rep. Ben Chandler (KY) while Hillary got North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley.  Additionally:
(*stolen from http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/ superdelegate-list.html - great site for addicts)

4-18-08 - NY State Party Vice Chair Dave Pollak removed from Clinton and replaced with new Vice Chair Reginald LaFayette who also supports Clinton.

  • Added Rep. Betty Sutton (OH) for Clinton
  • Added DNC Janice Griffin (MD) for Obama. She endorsed a while ago but we never had a valid source.
4-19-08 - Added DNC Steven Achelpohl (NE) for Obama
- Added Rep. Tim Ryan (OH) for Clinton
4-20-08 - Added DNC Moretta Bosley (KY) for Clinton. She endorsed a while ago but we never had a valid source.
4-21-08 - Added DNC Enid Goubeaux (OH) for Obama
4-23-08 Added Gov. Brad Henry (OK) for Obama.
  • Added Rep. John Tanner (TN) for Clinton
  • Added DNC Audra Ostergard (NE) for Obama
4-24-08 - Added Rep. David Wu (OR) for Obama
4-26-08 - Added Kathy Sullivan (NH)# new NH add-on, for Clinton. Added DNC Charlene Fernandez (AZ) new AZ state vice-chair, for Obama.
4-28-08 - Added Sen. Jeff Bingaman (NM) for Obama.
- Added Fmr. DNC Chairman Paul Kirk (MA) for Obama. He endorsed a while ago but we never had a valid source.
We will add Mike Easley (NC) for Clinton after the endorsement becomes official.
4-29-08 - Added Gov. Mike Easley (NC) for Clinton
  • Added DNC Richard Machacek (IA) for Obama.
  • Added Rep. Ben Chandler (KY) for Obama
  • Added Rep. Ike Skelton (MO) for Clinton

So on the whole, yeah 1:1 is closer than 3:1 (I concede the point there).  Having said that, HIllary has to win 69% of the remaining delegates - i.e. 7:3 which doesn't seem to be promising at this point.  If Obama gets 30% of the remaining, it's over mathmatically.


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:22:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Actually today is a 1:1 day.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not yet (none / 0)

If he loses NC, it's quite possible.  I don't see the "Dream ticket" coming together.  If Obama does drop out, all we can hope for is a grainy video of an associate of McCain saying something stupid showing up on Youtube.  Maybe that'll blow up in his face too.


by the mollusk on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:00:17 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

I think we as HRC supporters should not treat Obama and his supporters the way that they treated us with all this talk of dropping out. Let's be bigger than them and wait till after the remaining contests.


by Iceblinkjm on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:00:53 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

Thank you.

The temptation is great to respond to their hyperbole with hyperbole of our own.  I will keep this in mind the next time I veer shrill in my partisanship.

:-)


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:15:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

How are math and facts hyperbole?  


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Pretending that there's some definitive way of calculating the delegate total right now given the uncertainty of FL/MI and 300 outstanding supers, let alone predicting what it will be months from now, is a disortion.  Exaggerating that position to the point that Hillary should "drop out" is hyperbole.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:44:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

simple addition is used to calculate the delegate totals.  Whether you agree with that or not, simple math is used to determine the nominee.  Your candidate has less delegates pledged to her than mine does.  Again, truth and simple math trump fiction and fervent wishing.


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Donna Brazille wants the supers to chose on electability, and a few days before that she was in the tank for Obama.  He's not polling well against McCain, The supers who have endorsed can change their minds, back and forth if they like. The point is that if Obama can't beat Hiillary with a commanding lead, he can't win the GE and the point of his candidacy is gone. the unite and hope part that requires a mandate cause it's bottom up and also means he needs very long coattails. I'm not saying he should drop out, I'm saying he will, because it's not in his interest to lose and because he's a stand up guy and once he gets it, he'll make the stand up move and we'll all admire him.  He'll do that cause he's smart, but he'll wait a few weeks to see how Indiana goes, and how his polls are against McCain.  This is a prediction not a demand.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:20:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

It seems you keep missing the point that there hasn't been any finalized standard for doing this simple math.

Does it include Florida?  Full?  Half?

Does it include Michigan?  If so, how?  Half?  

What about the supers in Florida/Michigan that were also temporarily stripped?

A lot of Obama's supporters mistakenly believe the exclusion of those states' delegates was mandatory.  It wasn't.  It's discretionary.  Per the rules, both states can be seated or unseated in any way either the Credentials Committee or late May appellate board deems fit.  The rules do not require any full exclusions.  The issue is alive and well.

Superdelegates: how will the decide?  Popular vote?  Pledged delegates (least favored metric)?  Electability, and if so, based on what?  Big states?  Swing states?  "New" electoral map theories?

Then there's the strange issue that plegded delegates are not bound to vote for any particular candidate.  

Sure, once you determine what counts and what doesn't, it becomes a simple task of addition.  But no one can say with any certainty what will be included and what won't.

You really need to get educated on these issues before you accuse other people of disregarding the "truth" and engaging in "wish[]"ful thinking.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 09:34:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

"I think we as HRC supporters should not treat Obama and his supporters the way that they treated us with all this talk of dropping out. Let's be bigger than them and wait till after the remaining contests."

you mean as HRC supporters lets not be hypocritical


PUMA: Particularly Undeveloped Mental Ability
by wellinformed on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:06:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

Obama dropping out? Nice to fantasize about, I guess, but not going to happen.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:01:18 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 3)

I'm not telling him to pack up and get out of dodge city, not telling him he's lost and to get over it, I'm saying that when he realizes he's not ready, he'll do the stand-up thing. It's not the same as bullying him to leave, mocking him as a loser and telling to not let the door hit him on the way out.  I'd like to see him on the ticket.  Give him time to define himself by deeds.  And to get real distance from his past associates that he can't control.  He can come out on top, and he knows how.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:15:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 4)

As it stands, he's ahead both in pledged delegates and the popular vote. Even as a Clinton supporter, I can see it would be ludicrous for him to drop out. Why would he "realize he's not ready"? He seems to think he is, and I don't think anything's going to change his mind.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:22:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly (2.00 / 1)

Anyone following his methods and personality closely would know that he probably wouldn't have even dropped out if he were in Clinton's position.

His secondary goal has always been party growth, and, if nothing else, the extended primary race has been good for that.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:33:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

This is so stupid that if this site wasn't filled with so much similar stupidity I would assume this is a troll.

It's comedy gold, though. My favorite part is how you say that Obama is not ready to be president, but he should be on the ticket. If Hillary blows an aneurysm on January 21, 2009 then we are well and truly fucked. Another four years with someone who isn't ready.

That's great advice.


I just flipped off President George, I'm going to Disneyland
by alvernon on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:42:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

she's not planning to die on day one. That's something he used to say to mock the dream ticket but he was wrong to mock it.  He's gong positive now, backing away from Wright and Axelrod. He's sick of it, wants to take a break, and he's preparing himself to step aside.  He'll do it very well, cause he is actually a highly decent man.  


by anna shane on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:20:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

Are you an Obama supporter mocking HRC supporters? It's unclear. If so - kudos.


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:26:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

I don't know if this is more comedy or a catchy new slogan for the Clinton campaign:

HILLARY: Not Planning to Die on Day One.

Given that almost no non-suicidal people die on the day they plan to die (and I'm guessing a majority don't have a death plan at all), Hillary's plans in that regard are worthless.

No matter. She's not going to be the nominee, and even if she gets it, Obama is not stupid enough to take the V.P. nomination.


I just flipped off President George, I'm going to Disneyland
by alvernon on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 08:01:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

Why would he drop out , he still the odds on favorite to win the nomination.

While the press conference would not help him much , Clinton has to keep winning to have a real shot .

The fact that Ike Skelton endorsed her shows like I said yesterday , Obama is becoming poisonous in the heartland.

If Obama is the nominee he would not win Virginia ,  or Missouri because of Wright , it has altered his image.

However I am not saying he is not electable.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:01:43 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.71 / 7)

I can't believe he didn't prepare better for the fall-out from his 20-year friendship with Rev. Wright.  That is really poor judgment and political immaturity.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:02:24 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

prob because his pastor isn't that bad of a guy overall. I give Obama credit for pretty much sticking by the guy as the media turn his 20 years worth of sermons into a 30 second montage of inflammatory remarks


by aaaa05 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:11:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.33 / 3)

now that's fucking hilarious.

because it's pitiful. and stupid. to the point of utter absurdity.


by rabidnation on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:15:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

outside of his absurd remark about the gov't creating AIDs to kill people of color, i really don't find anything he says that wrong or offensive


by aaaa05 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

what about "hillary aint never been called a nigger?"  you don't find that inappropriate coming from the 20-year spiritual advisor of her opponent?


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:23:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.00 / 1)

Of everything the man has said, that's what you get out of it.  Once a troll, always a troll...


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:26:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

not at all because it is a fact. Im sure Pastor Wright has been called one and she hasn't. Hes telling the truth


by aaaa05 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:28:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

I know. He's so uppity and out of his place!


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:27:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 4)

Calling for Obama to drop out is as ludicrous as calling for Hillary to drop out.


"If we can't live together... we're going to die alone."
by VAAlex on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:03:15 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 4)

Possibly slightly moreso.


Even John McCain lusts after teh engels.
by sricki on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh (none / 0)

I wasn't going to say it, but it's better coming from you.


In this avalanche, the pebbles get to vote.
by Dracomicron on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:34:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 2)

Do you have any rational for this belief, aside from the fact that you want him to? The entire primary has played out pretty much as predicted, with a few side shows for entertainment along the way that haven't impacted anything.

Thanks for your concern though.


John McCain wants to make abortion illegal
by Lost Thought on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:05:09 PM EST

He will (1.85 / 7)

His internals will be showing him losing Indiana big and potentially, NC although by a close margin.  As Anna said, he did not think he was ready but allowed himself to be talked into it.

It will be more important to him to save his candidacy for 2016 and at the same time to be seen as the uniter who gave up his lead in order to bring the party together behind Hillary.


I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.
by NewHampster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He will (1.00 / 4)

is this the shit they're feeding you from hillary central this morning?

it's pretty funny, i'll grant that.


by rabidnation on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He will (2.00 / 2)

I'll tell you something strange that happened today - 2 staunch republicans, both of whom I know very, very well are seriously leaning more towards him because of this.  Neither of them was really sold on McCain version 2.0 and neither really likes Hillary (since they both hated Bill).  However, they felt that the flak Obama is getting over this is not only unfair and unwarranted, but it seems to one of them (and this is a quote) that this is the excuse that the Democrats were looking for not to nominate Obama so they could do it without looking like superficial racist assholes.  Interesting that conservatives seem to have a different spin on it...


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:30:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He will (none / 0)

Even if that scenario plays out as you hope, he will still be winning. Still. Let me repeat that, he will still be winning.

I also see right through your plea to "bring the party together." Only if its for Hillary is that a meaningful goal, right?


by AHunch on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:34:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: He will (none / 0)

Don't you understand? Queen Hillary IS the party. We are only her humble servants.


by Democratic Unity on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

I think if he wins NC then he stays in, but I remember him saying that "Indiana will be the tiebreaker" so I think you are right that his philosophical approach to his campaign may be different than a lot of his supporters.

http://www.thestarpress.com/apps/pbcs.dl l/article?AID=20080411/NEWS06/80411018 1002/NEWS01

He might decide to bow out if he looses both Indiana and NC next week and sees his national numbers plummet - but I don't think it is very likely at this point.


by sunnyaz08 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:06:13 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.50 / 2)

I hope we will drop out in June


Welcome to a Landslide without white Working class, Latinos, Women, Seniors and holding-on sweeties
by engels on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:07:02 PM EST

Maybe Jerome and crew can (2.00 / 1)

disable the site for a week's vacation.


I didn't believe in god before the primaries and I still don't.
by NewHampster on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:13:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 6)

"Quit while you're ahead" makes sense in a casino. Not so much in an election.


by platy on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:14:51 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 4)

I think he will drop out but it may take a few weeks for reality to sink in.  Maybe after the last primary is done and the MI and FL delegates are all seated.


Donate to Hillary Now!
by alegre on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:16:37 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

hes not going to drop out because he will still be winning after the last primary is done. hillary will be the one pressured to drop out


by aaaa05 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (none / 0)

MI and FL will not count in the primary - get over it.  Even McAuliffe doesn't believe Michigan should be seated.

Although it's funny how quickly your "Hillary is leading the popular vote" meme died...I figured as Minister of Propaganda, you could have towed the line a bit longer on that one...


Congratulations Steny Hoyer! Our 2008 Chickenshit Leader Of The Year!
by RockvilleLiberal2 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:33:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.00 / 10)

"I think he will drop out but it may take a few weeks for reality to sink in.  Maybe after the last primary is done and the MI and FL delegates are all seated"

do you take anything seriously ?? where did you read or hear that All of MI delegates are being seated ? I mean do you seriously think that the person with the most delegates should drop out?
I never said Hillary should drop out because she made some good points but how can one of Hillary's biggest supporter like you suggest he drop out or he may drop out ? you are really fanatical with your support and that can be a good thing but lets just say by some small slim miracle obama wins ? what would your life be like that day or after ? would you go on a drinking binge ?  start doing drugs ? or be a cutter or some other thing to harm yourself? Look I am a proud African American and I am for Obama and these past couple of days I asked myself? what would i do if Obama were to lose ?(thanks rev wright) I admit it sucks to think about it but I would be depressed for like a week and pray and clear my head and get ready to focus my passion to support MADAME PRESIDENT CLINTON. what would you do Alegre?


PUMA: Particularly Undeveloped Mental Ability
by wellinformed on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 06:24:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.33 / 3)

These personal attacks about alcoholism, drug abuse, and self-mutilation are really really out of line.  Typically, I troll-rate, but this needs to be hide-rated.  


2004 swing state margins: PA-2%, OH-2%, IA-1%, WI-0.5%, MI-3%, FL-5%, NM-1%; Alienating 50% of the party is a luxury we can't afford.
by BPK80 on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 07:48:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (1.50 / 2)

Uprated - there is no reason why this comment is being troll rated.


Never let the bullies win.
by SluggoJD on Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 12:25:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 5)

It's definitely good to see so many Clinton supporters debating when precisely Obama will drop out.  Personally, I suspect he will permanently suspect his campaign some time around November 2016.  Definitely before his VP wins that year's GE.  


by HSTruman on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:22:01 PM EST

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

HST he's likely going to be the nominee and he's likely going to lose in November. I know your emotional needs cant really cope with this but that's probably what's going to happen.  


by ottovbvs on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:38:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

Loses to McSame? I know the media is on McSame's side but my shoe could beat him.


John McCain on social security.
by heresjohnny on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Will Barack Drop Out? (2.00 / 1)

What a charming comment.  Oh, and thanks for the update on my "emotional needs."  Whatever that means, exactly.

Out of curiosity, would you rather be proven right on your doom and gloom scenerio, or have a democrat you didn't support win the white house?  That's not a hard question for me, but perhaps my "emotional needs" have clouded my judgment.  Please, give me the opinion of a more rational person.  Which, I'm guessing, one cannot be if they fail to understand why only HRC can win.


by HSTruman on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:52:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He should not, but he is unfit. (1.66 / 3)

He won't drop out.  And he shouldn't drop out.  We didn't expect Hillary to do that, and we shouldn't expect him to do that.  However, to me he is unfit to be commander in chief of the United States.  And he is unfit to be our general election candidate no matter how much love he gets from Andrea Mitchell.


by MidwestTracker on Tue Apr 29, 2008 at 05:24:23 PM EST

Why? (2.00 / 1)

Why is he unfit?
He was never my first choice, but really, why would you say he's unfit to serve?
Is it because his scary black minister said a few things over 20 years that upset you?
I can assure you, that if you go through 20 years worth of any minister's sermons you'll find something to beat him over the head with.